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Uncertainty is the only current certainty

Uncertainty is the only current certainty

With war in Ukraine and conflict in the Middle East, disruption and uncertainty are major themes of the current geopolitical landscape – and that may be echoed at this year’s COP event.

War can have a major impact on carbon outputs. In fact, the emissions generated during the first two months of the war in Gaza were greater than the annual carbon footprint of more than 20 of the world’s most climate-vulnerable nations.

This may have a resounding effect on the next global stocktake, where the UN calculates global progress in the fight against climate change. It may even require some recalibration of realistic carbon targets. But it’s not the only reason for uncertainty heading into this year’s event…

2024 has been the year of political change, with over 60 countries participating in national elections – this accounts for more than half the world’s population.

At the forefront of most people’s minds, the US election will reach its conclusion just six days before COP29 starts. Considering presidential candidate Donald Trump previously removed the United States from the Paris Agreement – a legally binding agreement on climate change adopted by 196 parties – the result of the election is likely to have a significant impact on the environmental future of a major power, and therefore the world.

This teetering political landscape is already creating a wait-and-see approach from other countries when it comes to their climate change commitments, and could prove to be a pivotal factor for this year’s COP.